Global beef trade is expected to grow steadily over the next five years, driven by increasing demand from Asia and strategic export expansions by South American countries, according to a new report by food and agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank.
The new report and accompanying world beef map highlight global beef trade has increased substantially over the past five years, with exports rising by 14% from 2019 to nearly 13 million metric tons by 2024.
“Brazil and China have emerged as dominant forces, with Brazil leading exports and China becoming the top importer,” RaboResearch Senior Analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said.
“Brazilian beef exports have surged from 2.3 million metric tons in 2019 to an anticipated 3.6 million metric tons in 2024, largely fuelled by China's growing market demand.”
“This growth underscores Brazil's pivotal role, accounting for approximately 50% of China's beef imports.”
Growth in Chinese and Brazilian beef imports and exports, 2015-2024
Volatility and market dynamics
The report says the global beef market has experienced significant volatility due to disease outbreaks, geopolitical tensions, and shifting economic conditions.
According to Gidley-Baird, this unpredictability is expected to persist, impacting traditional trade flows and creating uncertainty.
“As tariffs and market access restrictions continue, the geopolitical environment remains a key factor in ongoing market fluctuations. Companies that can navigate this volatility and capitalise on favourable conditions will likely be well-positioned for success,” he said.
Asian demand fuels growth
The report says the second half of the decade is expected to witness continued growth in global beef trade, driven by increasing consumption in Asia.
“Countries like Vietnam, China, Malaysia, and the Philippines are experiencing strong per capita consumption growth, necessitating greater reliance on imported beef. South American countries, particularly Brazil, are expected to meet this demand through productivity improvements and enhanced management practices,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
“Other established exporters – such as the US, Australia, and New Zealand – are expected to see more value-driven growth, leveraging quality attributes and established supply chains.”
Production shifts and consumer tensions
Global beef production has increased by 5.5% over the last five years, but, the report says, a temporary decline is anticipated, particularly in the US, Brazil, and Europe.
“This reduction should support cattle and beef prices, shifting margins to producers,” explains Gidley-Baird.
“However, production levels are expected to recover, bolstered by improved genetics and increased carcass weights.”
“With lower global supplies of beef expected in the next couple of years, and our expectation that growth in beef consumption will be driven by net-importing countries, there is likely to be a growing tension between global and domestic customers.”
“Australia, New Zealand, and Brazil have experienced this recently, as strong demand from US consumers has led to increased export volumes and prices, and this has supported beef and cattle prices in those countries.”
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