New Zealand is well placed to capitalise on changing global protein demand, but capturing lasting value will depend on demonstrating the value of trusted, nutrient-dense red meat products to increasingly deliberate consumers, according to a new report by food and agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank.
In the report, titled New Zealand’s protein moment, RaboResearch says tight global beef and sheepmeat supply may provide a near-term positive price window, but longer-term value will likely depend on market mix, customer relationships and reliable delivery.
“Tighter beef and sheepmeat markets in 2026 and 2027 may give New Zealand some breathing room to strengthen its position before global supply normalises,” report author, Rabobank senior animal protein analyst Jen Corkran said.
“Strong prices are welcome, and they open doors, but they are not a long-term strategy on their own. Lasting value will still come back to meeting product specifications, delivering a good eating experience, being reliable and solving a genuine customer need.
“This is a good season for farmers, processors and exporters to build the next one – to broaden their market and customer options, strengthen the evidence behind nutrition and provenance claims, and keep improving how product is delivered beyond the farmgate.
Jen Corkran, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
“Tight supply may support farmgate prices for a time, but proven value is what is more likely to keep customers with us as the cycle turns.”
Every bite has to earn its place
The report says the global demand reset is not simply a story of people wanting more protein but of protein earning a clear place in smaller, more deliberate diets.
“That should suit New Zealand, but dairy ingredients and red meat may capture the opportunity differently,” Ms Corkran said.
“Dairy proteins can be incorporated into a wide range of products for their nutritional and functional benefits, while red meat must earn its place as a more complex eating experience built around taste, texture, nutrition and provenance.”
Ms Corkran said volume growth is slowing in many mature food markets.
“As meals and snacks become smaller and more deliberate, consumers are shifting from asking ‘how much am I getting?’ to ‘what is this doing for me?’,” she said.
“Products offering clear nutritional benefits or a rewarding eating experience are more likely to earn a place in consumers diets.
“Protein works well in this new value equation because people understand it, can count it and associate it with fullness, muscle maintenance and healthy ageing. Increasingly, it is also being judged by what it delivers per calorie, dollar and eating occasion.”
The report says GLP-1 weight-loss medications are accelerating this shift with US surveys suggesting nearly one in eight US adults has used a GLP-1 medication for weight loss in recent years.
“People using these medications generally eat less, but that does not mean demand for every food will fall at the same rate. Because weight loss can include the loss of lean body mass, protein is increasingly being positioned as important for preserving muscle,” Ms Corkran said.
“The commercial signal is not simply ‘more protein’ or ‘more meat’. It is about useful, highquality protein that delivers nutrition, convenience, eating quality and value for a smaller appetite.”
Proof is becoming part of the product
The report says buyers, regulators and consumers increasingly want straightforward answers: what is the product, where did it come from, what does it deliver and can the supplier stand behind it?
“New Zealand’s reputation for trusted food produced from largely pasture-based systems matters more when it is supported by verified nutrition, traceability, assurance of animal welfare as well as environmental performance and dependable supply,” Ms Corkran said.
“That evidence may help retain customers as policy, price or market access changes.”
Five areas that could help turn protein advantage into value
Ms Corkran said the report identifies five areas for consideration which could translate into stronger reasons for customers to choose New Zealand animal proteins.
The first is to follow the eating occasion,” she said.
“A farmer may produce a lamb or a steer, but customers buy meals, snacks, ingredientsand outcomes. Processors and exporters can work backwards from those occasions and ask what portion, texture, preparation time and nutritional benefit will make New Zealand protein the easy choice.
“The second is prove the protein. Protein quantity may be one relevant measure, but it does not tell the whole story. Depending on the product and available evidence, digestibility, amino-acid profile, micronutrient content and eating quality may provide further points of differentiation.
“The next consideration is to show what pasture delivers. New Zealand’s red-meat systems are generally characterised by substantial use of pasture across an animal’s lifetime. The distinction starts with farmers who are skilled at growing and using pasture, with animals grazing homegrown feed and converting it into protein in rotational grazing systems.
“In RaboResearch’s view, the commercial opportunity may lie in examining whether, and in which circumstances, these systems are associated with measurable outcomes such as eating quality, animal-care assurance or environmental performance.”
The fourth consideration, Ms Corkran said, was to find the best home for every component.
“Value may not always sit in traditional product formats. For red meat, this means looking at how different parts of the animal could deliver greater nutritional or commercial value through products and uses that meet specific customer needs,” she said.
“The question is not only what we produce, but where each component can create the greatest value for customers.
“The final consideration is keep more than one door open. A good product can still lose value if it depends on one market, customer or route to shelf. Broader market, customer and product options may support demand and reduce exposure when policy, prices or consumption patterns shift.”
Ms Corkran said the strategic task for New Zealand is clear.
“New Zealand does not need to produce the most protein. It needs to prove why protein produced from largely homegrown feed and pasture-based systems is among the most valuable – and sell it to the customers who value it most.”