Chinese beef trade quotas and a looming suspension of Brazilian beef into the EU market are expected to reshape global beef flows over the remainder of 2026, with implications for New Zealand exporters, according to food and agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank.
In its Q3 Global Beef Quarterly report, Rabobank says Chinese quotas have led to a redistribution of global beef trade volumes across recent months.
“Australia reached its China safeguard beef quota in mid-June, resulting in a 71% month-on-month decline in beef exports to China from May to June,” report co-author Rabobank senior animal protein analyst Jen Corkran said.
“As Australian shipments fell away, Chinese buyers turned to other suppliers and New Zealand was a key beneficiary, with imports rising 66% year-on-year, while volumes from Canada and Bolivia also increased 104% and 62% respectively,” she said.
“Brazil is expected to hit its own China safeguard quota some time in August, and anticipation of reduced access to China has already pressured Brazilian cattle prices lower.”
Ms Corkran said the Brazilian beef industry was also contending with the looming threat of a proposed EU suspension of imports from the South American beef production heavyweight.
Jen Corkran, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
“The proposed EU suspension of Brazilian beef imports, reportedly driven by food safety concerns, has the potential to trigger a further reshaping of global beef trade flows from September,” she said.
“If implemented, around 10,000 tonnes per month of Brazilian beef would need to be redirected into alternative markets, increasing competition across a number of major importing regions.”
For New Zealand beef exporters, Ms Corkran said, the trade disruptions would likely have an impact on the destination of Kiwi beef exports over the short-to-medium term.
“The combination of China's quota system and potential restrictions on Brazilian beef has the capacity to significantly alter global trade flows through the second half of the year,” she said.
“For New Zealand exporters, that creates opportunities in some markets, but it also means greater competition as displaced product is redirected into key destinations such as the US, Japan and South Korea.”
Ms Corkran said the key question over the coming months will be where that displaced product ultimately lands and how quickly global buyers adjust their sourcing strategies.
“Despite the uncertainty around global trade flows, the underlying fundamentals for New Zealand beef remain constructive, and there is plenty to watch on a global trade level heading into the latter half of the year,” she said.
“New Zealand is relatively well positioned given the diversity of its export portfolio and continued demand across major markets.”
Global cattle prices and production
The report says that in July, global cattle prices pulled back modestly from the record levels reached earlier this year.
“Prices in Australia, Canada, and the US eased by 2-6% from June. Improved cattle availability, signs of consumer resistance to higher beef prices, and trade disruptions have all contributed to weaker market sentiment. Further price consolidation is possible over the next several months as markets adjust to changing supply and demand dynamics,” it said.
Ms Corkran said RaboResearch's forecast for lower global beef production remains firmly intact.
“While quarter two data is not yet complete, production is expected to decline across key markets including Europe, the U.S., Brazil, and China,” she said.
“The downturn is expected to continue over the next 12 months, with Brazil projected to post the largest volume decline. Overall, global beef production is forecast to fall 2% year-on-year.”
New Zealand update
The report says New Zealand cattle prices continue to benefit from global beef scarcity.
“AgriHQ indicators show bull beef prices are holding above $9.70/kg cwt across New Zealand, with some schedules pushing through $10.00/kg cwt by mid-August, up from closer to $9.00/kg cwt at the start of quarter two,” Ms Corkran said.
“Manufacturing cow has moved well above $8.00/kg cwt, reflecting sustained demand for trim, while prime prices continue to edge toward and beyond $10.00/kg cwt. Across key categories, farmgate prices remain as much as 60% above the five-year average.”
Ms Corkran said supply in New Zealand has now caught up after the slower quarter one production.
“Stats NZ data puts quarter two beef production at just under 214,000 tonnes, around 20% higher than quarter two 2025, taking first half 2026 production about 5% ahead year-on-year,” she said.
“That aligns with RaboResearch’s forecast for 2026 New Zealand beef production to lift somewhere around that 4-6% mark.”
The report says export markets are converting the tight global supply into record returns for New Zealand beef.
“With the higher total beef production, it followed that quarter two exports also rose, reaching 152,405 tonnes and close to $2.04 billion in value. For the full first half of 2026, export value hit a new record of $3.58 billion, well ahead of 2025, thanks to the higher average export value,” Ms Corkran said.
“The US remains the anchor market, taking 40% of quarter two export volume and making up 45% of total value, while China accounted for around a quarter of volume and 18% of value.”